Line of Scrimmage: Moss far from the big catch of receiver pool
Football Betting Lines
02/15/2012 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Leave it to a wide receiver to add a little spice to what's customarily the blandest period of the NFL year.
With all relatively quiet on the Peyton Manning front for the time being, the noisiest piece of news of this post-Super Bowl lull came from Randy Moss' public declaration that he intends to end a one-year retirement and return to football in 2012.
The announcement, made during an unusual video chat on Moss' 35th birthday on Monday in which the once-feared playmaker also expounded on such thought- provoking subjects as bodily waste and picking one's nose in clear view, grabbed headlines as much for its bizarreness as the well-placed timing of taking place in the mundane week after the league's title game.
While Moss' peculiar rant proved he hasn't lost the ability to entertain since his self-imposed hiatus, the bigger question among personnel executives (other than the understandable ones about his personal stability) is whether a player coming off an uninspiring 2010 campaign in which his employers (three) nearly matched his touchdown total (five) and who carries a history of volatile behavior is even worth the risk at an advanced age.
Moss' desire to play for a championship contender will further limit the crop of suitors, but the greatest barrier standing in his way to a comeback may come from an offseason market that's flooded with attractive options at the wide receiver position.
Five members of this year's unrestricted free agent class had over 1,000 receiving yards in 2011, and four of them -- Vincent Jackson, Marques Colston, Dwayne Bowe, Steve Johnson -- will be between 26 and 29 years old next season and in the prime of their careers. Two others -- Reggie Wayne and DeSean Jackson -- have reached the 1,000-yard mark on multiple occasions and were each considerably more productive than Moss was in his disappointing 2010 tour with New England, Minnesota and Tennessee.
With young talents such as Super Bowl XLVI hero Mario Manningham, Robert Meachem and Laurent Robinson also in line for increased roles and salaries, Moss' path back to the NFL may wind up being even bumpier than first thought.
That's not to say there won't be any interest in his services -- remember that Plaxico Burress was able to land a $3 million deal with the New York Jets at a similar age following a 2 1/2-year exile from football -- and Moss isn't the league-wide pariah that the also-unemployed Terrell Owens has become. And although sporadic, Moss did display moments of the game-breaking skills that made him arguably the most dangerous deep threat the league has ever had in his heyday during his most recent season, as three of his five 2010 scores were on passes of 34 yards or more.
Not surprisingly, the New England Patriots have been popularly mentioned as a possible landing spot for Moss, especially after their Super Bowl XLVI loss revealed the absence of a bona fide offensive field stretcher that the mercurial veteran so ably provided during his stellar previous run with the organization.
There's no denying the Patriots haven't quite been the same from a big-play standpoint since Moss' acrimonious departure four games into the 2010 season. Sure, Tom Brady put up the second-highest amount of passing yards in NFL history in leading New England's run to Indianapolis, but only 10 of his 39 touchdown throws (25.6 percent) were from over 20 yards out.
In Moss' last full season with New England in 2009, nearly 43 percent of Brady's scoring strikes (12 of 28) were 20 yards or more.
It's more likely, however, that the 2012 version of Moss will resemble the 2011 edition of Burress -- a factor inside the red zone with minimal impact in the middle of the field. And the Patriots may find a better fit on the market in someone like Brandon Lloyd, four years younger than Moss and someone who flourished in offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels' system in Denver two years back, when he led the NFL in receiving yards and averaged nearly 19 yards per catch.
The Jets and Philadelphia also have been brought up as potential destinations, in part because both flirted with the idea of signing Moss last summer. New York doesn't seem to be an ideal match, as a reputed malcontent would figure to be at the bottom of the wish list of a team that just had a promising season derailed by toxic locker-room chemistry needs, but the Eagles would make some sense considering their need for a proven weapon within the red zone, an area where the slightly built DeSean Jackson has often been neutralized.
Jackson's name also has been in the news of late, with the Philadelphia Inquirer reporting over the weekend that the team intends to place the franchise tag on the speed demon. It's probably the Eagles' best course of action as well, with such a maneuver allowing the organization to keep dangling the carrot to a player with injury concerns whose main motivation has been securing a long-term contract. And heading into a season that's been clearly earmarked as a boom-or-bust one for head coach Andy Reid and his staff, it's also a move that would help ease the transition for the extensive overhaul that would take place if the Eagles again fail to meet expectations.
Don't be shocked if a few other teams utilize that same strategy, as this year's franchise tender for wide receivers is expected to be around $9.5 million, significantly less restrictive than the 2011 number of $11.4 million. Bowe and Johnson would be logical candidates to be tagged if their respective teams aren't able to reach a multi-year pact prior to free agency, as would Moss' former New England teammate, Wes Welker.
One receiver who's almost certain to hit the market is Vincent Jackson. Since the San Diego standout was franchised by the Chargers last season, the team would be obligated to pay him 120 percent of his 2011 salary, which would come to a prohibitive $13.68 million, and the Bolts may not have the available cap space to match what the 29-year-old standout would command as arguably the top receiver of this year's free-agent group. With the 2012 class so deep at wideout, it's more likely general manager A.J. Smith explores a cheaper alternative while concentrating on filling holes along the offensive line.
Another name to watch on the free-agent front could be Pittsburgh's Mike Wallace. Though the fleet-footed receiver is only eligible for restricted free agency with just three years of service, the Steelers have major cap problems and could conceivably lack the resources to match a competing offer if unable to lock him up to a long-term deal. The new collective bargaining agreement instituted after last summer's lockout has given teams more incentive to pursue RFA's, with the maximum compensation having been reduced from a first- and third-round draft pick to solely a first.
EXTRA POINTS
It's now been seven years since a team has repeated as Super Bowl champion, and early indications suggest the public believes that streak will continue. According to RJ Bell at Pregame.com, the New York Giants opened at 13-1 odds to capture a second straight Lombardi Trophy, which stands behind seven teams on the initial line. Green Bay tops the chart at 5-1, followed by New Orleans (6-1) and New England (8-1). Philadelphia, which finished a game back of Big Blue in the NFC East, is tied with Baltimore and Pittsburgh for fourth on the list at 12-1.
Pregame.com also gives Manning a 14 percent chance of returning to the Colts for next season, with Miami (20 percent) or Washington (17 percent) viewed as the legendary quarterback's most logical destination, as well as a 20 percent chance of retiring. It's hard to buy the Redskins as a legitimate suitor, however. Being forced to go head-to-head with his brother twice a season would be uncomfortable enough, but Manning's not going to want any part of the inevitable power struggle that would ensue between he and fellow control-freak Mike Shanahan over offensive philosophy.
Though I've never been much of a fan of Whitney Houston's record, her performance of the national anthem at Super Bowl XXV more than 20 years ago is still the best rendition I've ever heard. What an amazing talent.
Do the right thing, Hines Ward. There's no sense in tarnishing your legacy by hanging on another year as a bit player with another team, especially with two Super Bowl rings already in the jewelry case. Ask Franco Harris how much he cherishes that year he spent with the Seattle Seahawks.
Early prediction for the 2012 season opener: Steelers at Giants. Though the league has been reluctant to kick things off with an interconference match-up since it first began designating the reigning Super Bowl winner to host its lid-lifter in 2004, with Saints-Colts in '07 the lone clash involving both an AFC and NFC representative, the tradition, popularity and recent success of these two franchises would make this an awfully tantalizing first game.
The Packers at Giants is a distinct possibility as well, as that would pit the last two Super Bowl champs in a season opener for the second straight year.
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2007 NFL Football Betting Preview
“You play to win the game!”
Those are the words of notoriously intense head coach Herman Edwards. Unfortunately, from a bettors’ perspective, most coaches don’t feel that way about the NFL preseason. August is a time to evaluate young players, finalize the depth chart and pray your star players stay healthy.
The trick to making money during the exhibition schedule is identifying coaches – like Edwards – who can’t stand losing even when there's nothing on the line.
The New York Jets betting won 15 of 21 preseason games and went 14-7 against the spread (ATS) during Edwards’s five-year tenure with the club. In his first season as the Kansas City Chiefs field boss, the team improved from 0-4 to 2-2.
Identifying win-a-holics like Edwards is a good start if you plan betting the preseason – even though most say you shouldn’t ... but what the hell do they know anyway?
Here’s a brief rundown of two teams that have a habit of winning during the second-stringers’ season, and another club that has a good chance of exceeding this year.
Playing in the media hub of North America can be stressful but the press can’t write anything negative about the way Tom Coughlin’s boys play in the preseason. The Giants won and covered all four games last summer, improving their record to 7-1 both straight up (SU) and against the spread over the last two years.
Coughlin has shown he’s not afraid to give his starters more time in the second preseason game than most of his colleagues, no doubt one of the reasons his team has been so dominant.
Bettors can count on America’s team early on. The Cowboys are 14-6 both SU and ATS since 2002 in warm-up contests. Former coach Bill Parcells, the coach of the team the last four years, has an intimidating, in-your-face presence – surely a reason Dallas has had so much early success.
The Big Tuna won’t be strolling the sidelines with looks of disgust, but new coach Wade Phillips will be anxious to make a good first impression for owner Jerry Jones.
Dallas plays the Indianapolis Colts and the Denver Broncos before things get serious. They then face the Houston Texans in their third contest (the game starters see most game time) and finish off with the Minnesota Vikings.
Expect a Dallas team able to walk away with another 3-1 preseason record.
This team scored a league-worst 12 offensive touchdowns last season, so the rookies and veterans each have something to prove. There’s a bounty of first-unit jobs up for grabs and plenty of bodies competing for those slots.
First-time head coach Lane Kiffin will be eager to impress an owner who employs the philosophy, “Just win, baby!”
The 32-year-old Kiffin has to command respect from a locker room full of players older than him. All of these factors should lead to purpose in preseason.
Don’t forget: before playing like a team that belonged in NFL Europe, Oakland went 4-1 (both SU and ATS) in exhibition games.
To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your football wagering needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.
College Football Betting Tips From a Pro
While the NFL is the sport wagered on the heaviest, college football betting lines has become more and more popular as people realize it’s a game that can be beat. The NCAA football season gets longer each year with the addition of numerous bowl games and with that comes more opportunities for more money in your pocket, if handled correctly.
Betting on college football is not the same as with the NFL, so make sure you separate the two. Because of the vast number of teams, the parity between college football programs is slight and thus, you are going to see some high numbers in the NCAA. Teams favored by more than 40 points are not uncommon especially early in the season when teams playing their non-conference schedules.
The best advice when trying to tackle these enormous spreads and is to just stay away. A team that is favored by 40 points is favored by that many for a reason while teams getting 40 points are bad enough that they shouldn’t be touched. Set yourself a spread limit. Getting rid of these games will cut down on the number of contests that you need to handicap while staying away from backdoor or front-door covers.
What is a backdoor and front-door cover you ask? A backdoor cover is a team that is getting beat by more than the spread, but scores late to get within that number thus covering the spread. A front-door cover is just the opposite where the favorite scores late and covers the number they are favored by.
These front-door and backdoor covers are common when second and third string players enter games in college football and it can be the worst nightmare for some bettors. These players can also be your best friend, but ask any bettor and he will give you more instances on losing in this situation than winning. It just seems to work out that way even though everything evens out in the end.
College football betting has some of the softest lines of any sport and it’s being able to find these lines that will make you a successful college football handicapper. The NFL and NBA have the tightest lines around and while those sports can be beat by looking at situations and systems, college football doesn’t quite work that way. It’s much more manual, but when done correctly, it’s much more gratifying as well.
Getting into the nuts and bolts of college football means looking at the many stats in order to beat the number. As opposed to pro football, college football is less dependent on situations and angles and more on certain statistics. Rushing offense and defense, pass efficiency offense and defense and turnover margins are huge. These are vital in the NFL, but even more so when it comes to college football.
Being able to run the ball in college football has always been a key factor in the overall success of a team. The same adage also goes for teams who have the ability to stop the run. Putting these two factors together can produce some positive results in a team’s record both straight up and against the spread. These numbers show huge differences in teams and the spread may not take those into effect, which is where the value comes into play.
Passing yardage numbers both for and against can be a misinterpreted statistic. However, pass efficiency has always been one of the best ways to look at a teams’ passing game ability both offensively and defensively. But is it really a true indication of how they perform? I wouldn’t say so since they are raw passing numbers with nothing else taken into consideration.
I use pass efficiency ratings when doing my handicapping but I adjust my numbers based on a number of factors including power ratings, strength of schedules, personnel and injuries. This gives a much better picture of a team’s ability to pass effectively and also being able to defend the pass. Tweaking pass efficiency stats instead of raw passing yards is the key.
Turnovers are the single most frustrating, and at times the most gratifying, aspect of a college football lines, mostly because they are so unpredictable. They are part of the game and most of the time nothing can be done to control them. However, turnovers are contagious and they can carry over from game to game and season to season.
It’s important to know how to forecast these unforeseen events and how to use them to your advantage. You can find ways to give yourself an edge by looking at past histories of teams and coaches and how they have fared in turnover wars in the past. Instead of turnovers hurting you at the wrong times, find ways to use them to your advantage.
As you can see, college football handicapping is very labor intensive and isn’t just based on where teams are ranked in the AP and coaches polls. Experience, coaching and match-ups are all important since unlike the NFL, college teams turn over much more often with new personnel at most positions every single year. Keeping current on this information is vital.
Betting NCAA football can be lucrative if done correctly, but more importantly, it’s just plain enjoyable because it can be beat. College football is one of the best sports to watch with some of the best rivalries taking place in all of sports. The only downfall is that a championship isn’t decided on the field but on a computer-based system that is the Bowl Championship Series. That will change someday and we will all be better off for it.
To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your NCAA college football betting needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.